Box Office Predictions: Snow White & Alto Knights to continue 2025’s major slump

Here’s a grim figure: outside of Captain America: Brave New World and Dog Man, no other 2025 release has managed to open to over $20 million domestically. The closest we got was Mickey 17, whose $19 million opening was largely seen as disastrous for a movie that cost $118 million (and likely led to the recent reshuffling of WB’s troubled release calendar). The good news is that this weekend’s major new release, Snow White, is all but guaranteed to post the year’s second biggest opening (after Brave New World), but it will inevitably still be seen as a major box office disappointment.

While industry estimates have it opening in the $50 million range, which seems accurate to me (I’d say it has a shot at $55 million), that number would still be a far cry from the usual box office takings anytime Disney does a live-action remake of one of their classics. On the high end, The Lion King opened with over $190 million, while even releases that were considered mildly disappointing (The Little Mermaid and Aladdin – neither of which is getting a sequel) opened north of $90 million. A $55 million opening would be their worst since Dumbo, which tanked with $45 million. With a budget in the $300 million range, that kind of opening simply won’t cut the mustard.

The only silver lining is that another recent Disney movie, Mufasa: The Lion King, also had a low opening ($35 million), but it was able to rally to a $250 million domestic total, with a $700 million plus international gross, meaning it turned a profit. For Snow White to be able to pull off the same trick, the word-of-mouth will have to be really good, but the film seems too generic to really get people talking.

Elsewhere, Warner Bros is all but dumping the Robert De Niro-led gangster flick The Alto Knights. They’ve barely been screening the film, which confusingly casts De Niro in dual roles. Without major critical acclaim behind it, it will be lucky to open to $5 million before it hits Max, where it seems destined to gain more of an audience. That number should still allow it to hit second play, with third place a 3-way-race between Mickey 17, Novocaine and Black Bag, all of which seem on track to hit the $4 million mark. My money is on Novocaine.

Here are my predictions:

1. Snow White: $55 million
2. The Alto Knights: $5 million
3. Novocaine: $4 million
4. Black Bag: $3.5 million
5. Mickey 17: $3.4 million

Are you going to see anything this weekend? Let us know in the comments!

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