2025 Tony Nominations Predictions: Who Gets In, and Who Should?

On Thursday, the Tony nominations will be announced by the Broadway League, with the awards scheduled for June 8 at Radio City Music Hall and broadcast on CBS. Who will be nominated, and who should be?

As usual, most media attention focuses on the nominees for best musical, the only award win that really makes a difference at the box office. Then again, does it? Last year, “The Outsiders” benefited from its best musical Tony, but “The Great Gatsby,” which received only one nomination (for costumes), is now outpacing the much-nominated and much-awarded “Hell’s Kitchen” at the box office The two other shows nominated for best musical, “Suffs” and “Water for Elephants,” closed months ago.

Look for the nominating committee to expand the musical category to five nominees this year. I’d like to see a complete American sweep: “Buena Vista Social Club,” “Dead Outlaw,” “Death Becomes Her,” “Maybe Happy Ending” and “Real Women Have Curves.” The absolutely harrowing “Swept Away” should also be on that list, but its very unfortunate short life on Broadway makes that highly unlikely. Expect the British “Operation Mincemeat” to throw out one of my favorites. The show most in need of a Tony nomination for best musical is “Boop!” With its box office currently way down, the cartoon tuner looks to be the Tonys’ earliest casualty due to few nominations.

Best play nominees are most likely to be Sanaz Toossi’s “English,” Jez Butterworth’s “The Hills of California,” Cole Escola’s “Oh, Mary!” and Branden Jacob-Jenkins’ “Purpose.” George Clooney and Grant Heslov’s “Good Night, and Good Luck” should be on that list, but could be bumped by Kimberly Belflower’s “John Proctor Is the Villain.” The nominators may see “Good Night” as a two-decade-old screenplay only recently transferred to the stage.

If there’s another movie snub, expect it to be Denzel Washington (“Othello”) in the category for best actor in a play. He deserves to be nominated, but the more likely nominees are Cole Escola (“Oh, Mary!”), Daniel Dae Kim (“Yellow Face”), Jake Gyllenhaal (“Othello”) and Louis McCartney (“Stranger Things”). Look for George Clooney (“Good Night, and Good Luck”) and Jim Parsons (“Our Town”) to wrangle for the fifth slot, which the nominators might very well expand to six.

The contest for best actress in a play is far less competitive, and it’s the Tony administration committee’s fault. Three of the season’s best lead performances – Jessica Hecht (“Eureka Day”), Marjan Neshat (“English”) and Mare Winningham (“Cult of Love”) – are eligible instead for featured actress in a play. That leaves Laura Donnelly (“The Hills of California”), LaTanya Richardson Jackson (“Purpose”) and Sarah Snook (“The Picture of Dorian Gray”) to lead this pack. Will the Tonys look to Mia Farrow (“Roommates”) and/or Sadie Sink (“John Proctor Is the Villain”) simply to fill up the required slot(s)?

Far more competitive are the two director categories, for play and musical. Regarding the latter, I’d like again to see Saheem Ali (“Buena Vista Social Club”), Michael Arden (“Maybe Happy Ending”), David Cromer (“Dead Outlaw”), Sergio Trujillo (“Real Women Have Curves”) and George C. Wolfe (“Gypsy”). Don’t expect that list to materialize intact. Jamie Lloyd (“Sunset Blvd.”) and Robert Hastie (“Operation Mincemeat”) are very likely to make the cut of five nominees.

I expect more of my picks to be nominated for best director of a play. They are David Cromer (“Good Night, and Good Luck”), Kenny Leon (“Our Town”), Sam Mendes (“The Hills of California”), Sam Pinkleton (“Oh, Mary!”) and Phylicia Rashad (“Purpose”). I bet Danya Taymor (“John Proctor Is the Villain”) pushes aside one of those helmers.

My picks for best actor in a musical also have a good chance of being the nominating committee’s. They are Darren Criss (“Maybe Happy Ending”), Andrew Durand (“Dead Outlaw”) David Hyde Pierce (“Pirates!”) and Jeremy Jordan (“Floyd Collins”). John Gallagher Jr. (“Swept Away”) should also be on that list. Since his show ran only 48 regular performances last year, I’d expect Jonathan Groff (“Just in Time”) to be there instead.

I predict my picks for best lead actress in a musical will diverge radically from the committee’s. Mine are Robyn Hurder (“Smash”), Audra McDonald (“Gypsy”) Helen J. Shen (“Maybe Happy Ending”), Jennifer Simard (“Death Becomes Her”) and Adrienne Warren (“The Last Five Years”). Of course, Nicole Scherzinger (“Sunset Blvd.”) will be nominated; it doesn’t matter that I find her Norma Desmond to be more broad parody than sensitive portrayal. Her overacting could very well put her on a final list with Sutton Foster (“Once Upon a Mattress”) and Jasmine Amy Rogers (“Boop!”).

Too often, the most acting, rather than the best, wins. In musicals, it also helps to be loud rather than good. I can never come close to predicting which featured performers will be picked. I’ll simply mention those performances I can’t forget. They include the already mentioned Jessica Hecht (“Eureka Day”), Marjan Neshat (“English) and Mare Winningham (“Cult of Love”). Other memorable supporting performances in plays were given by Andrew Burnap (“Othello”), Billy Eugene Jones (“Our Town”), Harry Lennix (“Purpose”), Michael McKean (“Glengarry Glen Ross”) and James Scully (“Oh, Mary!”). For musicals, the supporting standouts for me are Natalie Venetia Belcon (“Buena Vista Social Club”), Christopher Sieber (“Death Becomes Her”) and Michael Urie (“Once Upon a Mattress”). Surprisingly, most of the great work in the supporting categories came in just two shows: “Smash,” which gives us John Behlmann, Kristine Nielsen and Krysta Rodriguez. The cast for “Dead Outlaw” is even equally gifted, with Dashiell Eaves, Julia Knitel and Thom Sesma being nomination-worthy.

Cynthia Erivo hosts the 78th Tony Awards June 8 on CBS and Paramount+. Nominations will be revealed on Thursday.

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