Box Office Update: Thunderbolts on track for a $75 million opening – on the low end for Marvel?

Earlier this week, we predicted that Thunderbolts would come in slightly below the $80 million the industry projected, with a weekend total unlikely to top $75 million. According to Deadline’s numbers, that’s precisely where the movie will likely debut, with them calling a $73-77 million weekend. That’s on the low end for Marvel, roughly on par with the pandemic-stricken titles Shang-Chi and Eternals. It’s lower than Captain America: Brave New World’s $88 million opening. That said, Thunderbolts seems like it could potentially turn a profit or at least break even, with it posting a budget in the $180 million region, which is thrifty for a Marvel movie. It should turn a nice profit if it can crack $500 million worldwide. Brave New World, which had a better opening, has only grossed $414 million and will undoubtedly be one of the rare Marvel movies to lose money. 

So, what exactly is happening? Is it superhero fatigue? Maybe, as the Marvel grosses have been steadily declining since Ant-Man & The Wasp: Quantumania (excepting outliers like Guardians of the Galaxy 3 and Deadpool & Wolverine). The A-minus CinemaScore is solid, so it might have less of a drop-off than expected next week. However, it looks like Ryan Coogler’s smash hit, Sinners, is taking a big bite out of the box office, with it making a stronger than expected $33 million in its third weekend, which is only a 28% decline, despite losing all its premium screens. Perhaps as a concession to how well it’s doing (and audience demand), Sinners will be returning to large format screens in two weeks, for a limited re-release before Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning nabs them.

Sinners also seems to be taking a bite out of The Accountant 2’s grosses, with the film likely to fall a disappointing 60% this weekend to just under $10 million, with a $41 million total. There’s no way this one will gross as much as the original made, although it could still be a moneymaker for Amazon/MGM once it hits streaming. 

We’ll be back tomorrow with a full box office roundup!

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