Weekend Box Office Predictions: Thunderbolts will have a solid (if unspectacular) opening

The summer movie season is officially kicking off this weekend with the latest Marvel movie, Thunderbolts. Sporting a thriftier-than-usual budget and a smaller, more character-driven scale, it feels like a throwback to the MCU movies we used to regularly see in Phase One (check out my review HERE). While all of Hollywood has been buzzing about how Sinners has been cleaning up at the box office, its reign in the top spot is destined to end this weekend in the face of Marvel’s latest.

However, Thunderbolts doesn’t seem likely to open much higher than $75 million. That’s a solid number, but it’s far from the usual boffo opening the MCU used to take for granted. There’s been a bit of fatigue setting in to the franchise, which is getting an all-or-nothing revitalization next year with Avengers: Doomsday, but so far 2025 has been off to a mild start for the studio. While Captain America: Brave New World opened to $88 million, many believe the movie, which crawled to a $200 million domestic gross, was a disappointment. Thus, a $75 million opening for Thunderbolts will be considered modest, although there is a chance it could make more than expected, given the decent early buzz.

Sinners will have no trouble holding on to second place, although given the release of Thunderbolts, it will lose all its premium format screens. It should make about $25 million, although who knows – it could go higher given how resilient this has been at the box office. The battle for third place will be fought between The Accountant 2 and A Minecraft Movie. The latter might be able to edge out Ben Affleck’s well-received sequel with a $14 million weekend, while The Accountant 2 should make about $12 million. Until Dawn should be in fifth place with about $4 million.

Here are our predictions:

1. Thunderbolts: $75 million
2. Sinners: $25 million
3. A Minecraft Movie:  $14 million
4. The Accountant 2: $12 million
5. Until Dawn: $4 million 

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