Box Office Predictions: Thunderbolts will hang on to first place (but how much will it fall?)

Despite good reviews and solid word-of-mouth (an A-minus CinemaScore), Thunderbolts had a relatively weak opening for a Marvel movie. In fact, when the final box office stats came in on Sunday night, Thunderbolts ended up posting a softer-than-expected launch, with the final $74 million total actually under what Shang-Chi opened with – and that was a movie that came out during the height of the pandemic. To prop up the second weekend, Marvel and Disney have actually more-or-less renamed the film, with it now carrying the title The New Avengers in many markets, which plays off the movie’s final reveal and could be considered something of a spoiler.

But will this new hook be enough to keep the film from falling more than 60% in its second weekend at the box office? Given the soft opening, a more than 50% decline would be disastrous. Thunderbolts will likely post a $30 million weekend, which will be considered a disappointment by many.

Why so low? Simple – Sinners is still the word-of-mouth movie everyone wants to see. This will likely be Sinners’ last $20 million + weekend as it will have new competition from the buzzy Final Destination: Bloodlines next weekend. As such, I think a $22 million weekend is in the cards as it closes in on a $200 million-plus running domestic total. A Minecraft Movie should make about $8 million in third place, with The Accountant 2 in fourth place with $5 million.

Fifth place will be interesting, as two indies are opening wide this weekend, with Shudder’s Clown in a Cornfield and Vertical’s Josh Hartnett-led action flick, Fight or Flight. Both have been well-received, and if either manages to open over $4 million, it will likely be seen as a little victory for genre fare. My inkling is that Clown in a Cornfield might have the edge based on the notoriety of the book series.

Here are my predictions:

1. Thunderbolts: $30 million
2. Sinners: $22 million
3. A Minecraft Movie: $8 million
4. The Accountant 2: $5 million
5. Clown in a Cornfield: $4 million

What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments! 

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