Will Ariana Grande Be Able to Out-’Shine’ the Competition (Again) on the Billboard 200?

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated April 12, we look at a number of albums looking to knock Playboi Carti’s two-week No. 1 from the top spot – led by a reissue from one of the 2024’s top pop stars.  

Ariana Grande, Eternal Sunshine (Republic): Ariana Grande’s sixth studio album is an already-certified hit: Eternal Sunshine debuted atop the Billboard 200 upon its release in March 2024, with over 200,000 first-week equivalent album units, according to Luminate, and spawned a pair of Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 hits with advance single “Yes, And?” and Sunshine focus track “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love).” The album has stuck on the 200 for the last 55 weeks, still rating in the chart’s top half as of this frame. 

Next week, however, it should make a large jump – possibly to the very top spot. On Friday (March 28), Grande released the album’s Brighter Days Ahead deluxe edition, which added six bonus songs to the streaming version of the 13-track release: one extended version of the album-opening “Intro (End of the World)” and five totally new songs. Those previously unreleased songs have been performing well on streaming, with “Twilight Zone” even topping Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart for the Friday of its release, and all six cuts still rating in the top half of the 200-position chart.  

In addition, Grande has released a multitude of versions of the album for sale. Her webstore offers exclusive digital downloads of the 19-track Brighter Days Ahead reissue of the album, one with just that tracklist, one with the instrumentals of each track and one also with the a cappellas of each track (and all with alternate covers). Physical vinyl and CD variants are also available of the new edition, which include the three bonus tracks originally collected on the set’s (Slightly Deluxe) 2024 reissue. Grande has released a short film to promote the set, an emotional 26-minute mini-sci-fi flick also called Brighter Days Ahead.  

Will it be enough to top Playboi Carti’s reigning No. 1, the streaming behemoth Music? It could come down to the wire, with Carti’s dominance on DSPs competing with Grande’s robust sales – and the race might not be over yet on either side. 

Nav, OMW2 Rexdale (XO/Republic): Canadian rapper-singer Nav might not still be the regularly charting hitmaker he was at the turn of the 2020s, but his albums are still pretty well guaranteed to make an impact on the Billboard 200 – where he has two No. 1 sets to his name, and has charted in the top 10 with each of his last five sets. He’ll look to keep that streak alive with this week’s OMW2 Rexdale (or On My Way 2 Rexdale), which includes a number of big-name guests – including Metro Boomin, Don Toliver and the Billboard 200’s reigning champ Playboi Carti.  

To do that, he’ll have the help of a number of physical variants, including standard and signed CDs, vinyl and four deluxe boxed sets containing the standard CD and branded clothing. In addition, Nav is offering a sextet of digital albums as exclusives through his webstore, each of with comes with the core 11-song set and a consistent trio of bonus tracks — and then three additional bonus tracks, which are different on each edition. (He’s also done in-store signings at brick-and-mortar retailers to help promote the new set.)

Without a major streaming hit to its credit, it all might not be enough for Rexdale to compete for No. 1 with Grande and Carti – but it should be enough for yet another Nav top 10, at the least. 

Lil Durk, Deep Thoughts (Only the Family/Alamo/Sony): Deep Thoughts marks star rapper Lil Durk’s first full release since being arrested on murder-for-hire charges in late 2024. (He has pled not guilty and is currently awaiting trial.) While Durk is obviously not the dominant chart force he was earlier in the decade, Thoughts has unsurprisingly gotten off to a strong start on streaming, with its 17 tracks (including guest appearances from Future, Lil Baby and Jhené Aiko) all still ranking in the top 100 of Apple Music’s real-time chart. Streaming will have to make the great majority of Durk’s chart performance, however, since Deep Thoughts is currently only available to purchase as a digital download.  

Mumford and Sons, Rushmere (Glassnote): Each of the three albums alt-folkers Mumford and Sons released in the 2010s went to No. 1 on the Billboard 200 – most recently 2018’s Delta, the group’s most recent LP until last Friday. That was when the stomp-clappers released Rushmere, a 10-track set co-produced with country and Americana stalwart Dave Cobb, along with six vinyl variants, four CD editions and a cassette. The set’s title track has proven a top-five hit at rock radio, but the streaming response has thus far been muted – and though the band sells respectably, their blockbuster commercial peak is largely in the rearview at this point.