WB’s Next Big Original Bet ‘Sinners’ Won Over the Critics, Now It Just Needs the Masses

After pulling the box office out of its slump with “A Minecraft Movie,” Warner Bros. is now taking a roll of the dice with the ambitious, original horror film “Sinners,” whose box office fortunes hinge in good part on how much the cultural legacy of “Black Panther” has permanently rubbed off on its writer-director, Ryan Coogler.

“Sinners” is Coogler’s first original film since his feature debut “Fruitvale Station,” after which he went on to launch the “Rocky” spinoff series “Creed” and then lead Marvel Studios to its first Best Picture nomination with “Black Panther” in 2018. His 2022 sequel, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” earned a less enthusiastic reception from critics and audiences but was still widely praised for how it paid tribute to the late Chadwick Boseman.

Coogler now brings to theaters a deeply personal tale of a pair of twin brothers, both played by the filmmaker’s longtime collaborator Michael B. Jordan, who return to their home in Depression-era Mississippi hoping to use their mobster riches to create a music club. But their efforts attract the attention of a group of Irish folk singers … who just happen to be bloodthirsty vampires.

Currently, independent trackers are projecting a $36 million opening weekend for “Sinners,” with Warner Bros. projecting a similar start in the $35-40 million range. For most films in the typically low-budget horror genre, that would be a big hit. But “Sinners,” which sports heavily detailed set and costume design all shot in Ultra Panavision 70mm and Imax film cameras, sports a hefty $90 million production budget.

For comparison, Jordan Peele’s 2022 horror film “Nope” had a reported budget of $68 million and went on to gross $171 million worldwide with 72% coming from domestic receipts. Its $44.3 million opening is the largest for an original movie since the COVID pandemic.

On top of the “Sinners” budget, Warner Bros. agreed to some very favorable terms for Coogler, which include a percentage of the film’s first dollar gross receipts, not just what it makes after the studio recoups its costs. Just as notably, Warner Bros. will return ownership of “Sinners” to Coogler in 2050, 25 years after its release.

In an interview with Business Insider, Coogler said that his demand for ownership of the film was unique to “Sinners” and not one that he plans to ask for in future projects. That’s because this film is his most personal yet, inspired by the Mississippi-born grandfather he never knew and his blues-loving uncle, who died in 2015. Coogler also wanted the terms of the project to reflect its core themes about Black artistic ownership.

But for Warner Bros., those terms raise the break-even point on a film that will have to be one of the most successful original horror titles of all time to turn a theatrical profit. Further complicating matters is that as a film rooted in Black American history and culture, like Peele’s films, “Sinners” is expected to have minimal overseas grosses with an international opening of $10-15 million from 71 markets.

Here’s the good news: critics really, really love this movie. With 78 reviews logged at time of writing, “Sinners” is enjoying a spectacular 99% Rotten Tomatoes score, with rave reviews hailing it for its complex themes, Oscar-worthy technical work, and a slow-burn plot that culminates in a gripping and heart-pounding second half. It’s the sort of buzz that any studio craves, especially for an original film.

Given its status as an ambitious swing by an acclaimed filmmaker fresh off a wildly successful pair of superhero films, Coogler and “Sinners” have some parallels to another director/film pairing from 15 years ago: Christopher Nolan and “Inception.”

Fresh off the success of “Batman Begins” and “The Dark Knight,” Nolan used his newfound clout to make a complex original blockbuster about dreams within dreams that demanded a tentpole budget to bring to life.

Of course, “Inception” turned out to be a hit with $839 million grossed worldwide against a $160 million budget, establishing Nolan as a one-of-a-kind filmmaker who can command a global audience for cerebral, uncompromising films like “Interstellar” and “Oppenheimer.”

Now it’s Coogler’s turn to try and walk a similar path. His “Black Panther” films helped him establish a devoted audience — particularly with Black moviegoers — who showed up for “Wakanda Forever” to the tune of a $181 million domestic opening and $453 million final total.

“Sinners” won’t get near that, but Warner Bros. is betting that at least a portion of “Black Panther” fans are now also fans of Coogler and Jordan and will follow them to any film they make. Much of the online promotion for “Sinners” reflects this, including a 10-minute video released by Kodak in which Coogler offers a crash course in film formats and explains to fans the different aspect ratios and premium formats the film is available to see in.

That video has been a big hit on social media, drawing 13 million views on X in the past week and increasing awareness for “Sinners.” Since the video’s release, rival distributors and exhibitors tell TheWrap they expect “Sinners” to at least top $40 million this weekend, though the big question is how big Coogler’s growing fanbase really is. If the buzz from rave reviews gets more casual moviegoers to check out “Sinners” and the number of Coogler devotees is larger than tracking can measure, the film could reach a $50 million domestic opening weekend that would put it alongside the 2018 opening of “A Quiet Place.”

Currently, the highest domestic opening ever for an original horror film belongs to Jordan Peele’s “Us” with $71.1 million in 2019. Anything even close to that would be a major overperformance for “Sinners” and establish Coogler as one of a rare handful of directors that can sell a film on name recognition alone.

More than that, it would be a big victory for Warner Bros.’ film chiefs Michael De Luca and Pam Abdy, who have faced scrutiny in recent months amid reports that Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav was displeased with the studio’s recent performance.

It is worth noting that Warner’s past year of films, whether they are hits like “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” and the current billion-dollar contender “A Minecraft Movie” or busts like Bong Joon-ho’s “Mickey 17” and Todd Phillips’ “Joker: Folie a Deux,” were all films greenlit by previous film chief Toby Emmerich and ushered by De Luca and Abdy through various stages of completion.

“Sinners” is the first major release that belongs to the two executives from the very beginning and is the first of a trio of big-budget, auteur-driven films that they have taken a bet on alongside Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” due out in September, and Maggie Gyllenhaal’s “The Bride,” due out next March.

At a time when all of Hollywood is trying to figure out how to market non-IP films, De Luca and Abdy are banking on quality filmmaking marketed as must-see events. So far, “Sinners” is seeing its awareness levels increase among general audience thanks to that formula. Starting Friday, we will see how far that goes.

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