Global air travel demand growth slows to +3.3% in March as post-COVID surge eases

INTERNATIONAL. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has reported a modest year-on-year increase in airline passenger traffic for March, with total demand (measured in revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) rising +3.3%.

International traffic growth rate eased to +4.9% in March, a trend attributed to the ongoing normalisation of post-COVID demand comparisons.

Capacity expanded +7% year-on-year, while the load factor declined by -1.7 percentage points to 79.9%.

Domestic passenger traffic grew just 0.9% in March, largely due to declines in US and Australian markets. Capacity rose +2.5%, and the load factor dropped by -1.3 percentage points to 82%.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh said: “Passenger demand grew by +3.3% year-on-year in March, a slight strengthening from the +2.7% growth reported for February. A capacity expansion of +5.3%, however, outpaced the demand expansion, leading to a load factor decline from record highs to 80.7% systemwide.

“There remains a lot of speculation around the potential impacts of tariffs and other economic headwinds on travel. While the small decline in demand in North America needs to be watched carefully, March numbers continued to show a global pattern of growth for air travel.

“That means the challenges associated with accommodating more people who need to travel, specifically alleviating supply chain problems and ensuring sufficient airport and air traffic management capacity, remain urgent.”

Regional breakdown of international passenger traffic

International RPK growth continued its downward trend from January, though Asia Pacific stood out with a +9.9% increase. Load factors declined across all regions, leading to a -1.7 percentage point overall decrease.

Capacity in Asia Pacific rose +11.6% from the previous year, and the load factor declined to 84.1%, marking a -1.3 percentage point drop.

Demand for European carriers grew +4.9% in March. Capacity rose +6.9% and the load factor declined by -1.5 percentage points to 78.2%.

A -1% decline in passenger demand was observed among Middle Eastern carriers, likely attributable to shifting travel patterns during Ramadan. Capacity expanded +2.8%, and the load factor weakened to 74.6%, marking a -2.9-percentage-point decrease.

Demand for North American airlines dipped slightly by -0.1%, continuing a two-month downward trend. Still, it represents an improvement compared to the -1.5% drop recorded in February. Capacity was up +2% compared to the previous year, while the load factor dipped to 83%, down -1.8 percentage points.

Latin American airlines recorded a +7.7% rise in passenger demand, with capacity up +12.1%. The load factor decreased to 80.9%, a -3.3 percentage point decline.

African airlines saw a +3.3% increase in passenger traffic, although a +3.5% growth in capacity led to a -0.2-percentage point decrease in the load factor, which stood at 70.1%.

Despite a modest +0.9% rise in domestic air travel, regional performance varied sharply. Brazil (+8.9%) and India (+11%) recorded sharp increases, offset by declines in Australia (-1.2%) and the USA (-1.7%). Capacity was up +2.5%, resulting in a -1.3 percentage point drop in the load factor.