Box Office Predictions: Sinners to squeak out a win over Minecraft on Easter Weekend?

This weekend promises to showcase one of the closest box office battles in recent memory, with both Ryan Coogler’s Sinners and A Minecraft Movie looking to take the top spot. While Easter Weekend means that family audiences will no doubt flock to see A Minecraft Movie this weekend, I think Coogler’s R-rated vampire epic is bound to eke out a win.

While tracking suggests a $35-40 million opening, I feel that Sinners will open closer to the $50 million range. One thing that I think forecasters aren’t counting on is how strong Coogler’s film is going to be with the same black family audience that turned his two Black Panther movies into box office smash hits. While the R-rating will limit business somewhat, older kids and their parents will for sure go see this one, while the movie is also pretty much guaranteed significant crossover success among horror fans, superhero fans, action fanatics, and just about everyone else.

The fact is, Coogler is becoming a reliable brand, and people are excited to check out his movie – especially with the reviews being so strong (ours drops tomorrow morning). Heck, there’s a chance it could even open north of $50 million. That said, A Minecraft Movie shouldn’t be too far behind it, with it also looking at a weekend in the $45 million range, which would give Warner Bros two pretty huge smash hits over the weekend (Sinners also has a strong foothold on premium screens, with it opening on large format IMAX screens).

In third place, I’m expecting Angel Studios’s King of Kings to take advantage of the holiday weekend, and have a very modest week-to-week decline, with it on track for about $12 million. It should be followed by The Amateur, with about $8 million, while Warfare should take in around $5 million.

Here are my predictions:

1. Sinners: $50 million
2. A Minecraft Movie: $45 million
3. King of Kings: $12 million
4. The Amateur: $8 million
5. Warfare: $5 million

What do you think will top the box office this weekend? Let us know in the comments! 

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