‘Sinners’ Needs a Long Box Office Run, and It’s Going to Get It

When Warner Bros. rolled the dice on Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” it did so with the belief that the “Black Panther” director’s deeply personal horror film would build an audience buzz that could fuel weeks of ticket sales.

As the film’s opening week nears its end, that is exactly what is happening.

After earning the best opening weekend for an original film this decade with $48 million, “Sinners” has added another $23.5 million from weekday screenings to its domestic total. That’s nearly double the $13.9 million that Jordan Peele’s “Nope,” which held the previous original opening record for the 2020s, earned in its first Monday to Wednesday period.

That sets up the film for a $35 million-plus second weekend, according to exhibition sources, with a very strong chance of a total above $40 million. Such a result would mean a weekend-to-weekend drop of less than 20% and give “Sinners” a second No. 1 against Amazon MGM’s “The Accountant 2,” which is projected for an opening weekend that matches or is slightly below the $24.7 million start of the first “Accountant” in 2016.

At this pace, “Sinners” will cross $100 million in domestic grosses on Sunday, and makes it all but certain that it will become the first original film this decade to pass $200 million domestic. How far it goes beyond that will depend on how well the film holds against Marvel Studios’ “Thunderbolts,” which will take over premium formats like Imax starting on May 2.

The word-of-mouth for “Sinners” has rapidly expanded beyond Coogler’s loyal fans to moviegoers who may not have been aware of the film at all prior to its release. At a time when Hollywood has struggled to find a way to break through an atomized media landscape and built a mass audience for a film without a familiar IP, the overwhelming acclaim for this horror film has turned it into a water-cooler moment.

And for theaters, this medley of overperforming original titles and hit IP-based films is exactly what they were missing in March. The monthly domestic total for April will exceed $800 million, counterbalancing the anemic $397 million total for March and leading into a May that could have one of if not the strongest Memorial Day weekends ever with “Lilo & Stitch” and “Mission: Impossible 8” on the horizon.

Elsewhere, “The Accountant 2” is expected to contend with “A Minecraft Movie” for the No. 2 spot on the charts with an opening weekend in the mid-$20 million range. Amazon, which acquired the domestic distribution rights to the film last year, has reported a rise in views for the first “Accountant” on Prime Video, signaling increased interest in the film.

“The Accountant 2” has been well reviewed with an 80% Rotten Tomatoes score, but carries a much pricier budget at a reported $80 million compared to the $45 million of its predecessor. Artists Equity, the production company founded by “Accountant” star Ben Affleck with Matt Damon, produced the film with 51 Entertainment, Zero Gravity Management and Filmtribe.

Also hitting theaters this weekend is a 20th anniversary re-release of “Star Wars: Episode III — Revenge of the Sith.” The final installment of the “Star Wars” prequel trilogy is projected to earn around $20 million this weekend, providing another source of pre-summer support to theaters.

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